The Memorial Tournament now sits before the U.S. Open and will act as a proper warmup for the difficult conditions the players will face at Pinehurst No. 2 next week.
As a signature event, the field will be limited to 73 golfers with the top 50 and ties including players within 10 shots making the cut. This is the last signature event of the season to feature a cut as the Travelers played the week after the U.S. Open will be a no-cut event. Last week’s winner, Robert MacIntyre, will sit this one out after an emotional win with his father on the bag at the Canadian Open.
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A few players in the field will be racking up airline miles as they have to make their way to U.S. Open qualifying tournaments between the RBC Canadian Open and this week’s tournament. Cam Davis beat Adam Scott in a two-for-one playoff to qualify for the U.S. Open which leaves Scott hoping he can remain at 60th in the world rankings after this week to keep his streak of competing in major championships.
Muirfield Village Golf Club is an ever-evolving test for modern PGA Tour professionals. Jack Nicklaus has experimented with the bunkers over the years and redid the greens four years ago. Many of the fairways tighten at the 320-yard point which means the big hitters have to be accurate if they want the best chance into greens. Even though the course is long shorter drivers of the golf ball have been able to compete here with Denny McCarthy’s two straight top-five finishes a perfect example.
My model will still weight strokes gained tee to green more heavily even if driving distance doesn’t pop from year to year. Strokes gained on golf courses that measure over 7,400 yards will factor in and score average on difficult Par 3s. Course history will have its place in my model.
Course information
Course: Muirfield Village Golf Club, Dublin, Ohio
Designed by: Jack Nicklaus
Par: 72
Yardage: 7,569 yards
Average green size: 5,000 square feet
Features: The hardest set of Par 3s of any golf course on the PGA Tour. The greens are small for such a long course and that plays out as the average greens in regulation is well below a normal PGA Tour stop. The Par 3 16th hole, which had the highest scoring average of any par 3 on the PGA Tour in 2017, 2020 and 2023, has been updated with a new tee box that is 30 yards to the right of the original tee box and changes the angle of the green as well as how deep it looks. The bent grass greens run at 13 or more on the stimp meter. The primary rough is cut to four inches and will be a nice test for the players.
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Betting slip
Collin Morikawa +1400 comes into this week with his swing finally starting to click on all cylinders. After gaining over two strokes off the tee in every measured event since The Players Championship in May, he was finally able to get consistent with his irons at the PGA Championship and the Charles Schwab Challenge. He gained over seven strokes on approach combined in those two tournaments. He won here for the Workday Charity Open in 2020 and finished in second place at The Memorial in 2021. He was on fire gaining over five strokes on approach last year before having to WD when he tweaked his back.
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Patrick Cantlay +2500 has not been good this season by any stretch of the imagination. Even with that he has two top four finishes in signature events. In 2023, the driver was a weapon for Cantlay as he regularly gained over two strokes on the field off the tee. He hasn’t gained over two strokes off the tee in any week since The Sentry in January. His hands have still been really good around the greens as he has gained 1.2 or more strokes around the green in five straight. It’s hard to imagine getting Cantlay at this number at a place where he has won twice and finished third in the last five years.
Justin Thomas +3000 has been really good since his missed cut at the Masters. He hasn’t played particularly well here over the years, but his game should suit this course. He has gained over 1.1 strokes off the tee in three straight events and he has gained over 8.5 strokes around the green in his last three tournaments combined. Thomas was a cold putter away from contending at the PGA Championship.
Sleepers
Sam Burns +5000 has gained over 1.1 strokes off the tee in three out of his last four tournaments. He looks to have figured out his irons in the last few weeks as he gained over 7.4 strokes on approach combined over his last 10 rounds. He finished T16 here gaining strokes across the board.
Tony Finau +6500 hasn’t lost more than .3 strokes on the greens to the field in three of his last four events and he has found himself in contention with three top 18 finishes in that time. He gained over 12 strokes combined on approach in his last two tournaments and drove the ball particularly well at the Charles Schwab Challenge. He gained over 10 strokes combined in ball striking the last two times he played The Memorial.
DFS Plays
Scottie Scheffler $12,500 only gained 2.8 strokes on approach at the Charles Schwab Challenge. It was the first time he didn’t gain more than three strokes on approach since February. He hasn’t finished outside the top 10 since The American Express in January. He finished third here in his last two tries and I don’t see a reason you can’t afford him this week.
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Xander Schauffele $10,900 has had some interesting quotes this week after winning the PGA Championship. His comments on what he was thinking as he played No. 18 on his way to his first major championship were some of the most honest I have seen from a major winner. He hasn’t finished better than 11th in his last six golf tournaments here despite gaining more than 4.5 strokes on approach in four out of his last five trips. He’s gained over 25 strokes ball striking combined over his last two tournaments.
Collin Morikawa $9,800 See above.
Patrick Cantlay $9,400 See above.
Justin Thomas $9,200 See above.
Wyndham Clark $8,900 is in the middle of a downswing of his season. It’s tough to know if it has to do with the back injury he suffered at The Players Championship or not, but the statistics seem to support that. He hasn’t gained more than two strokes off the tee since the Houston Open and he hasn’t gained more than .5 strokes on approach in any tournament since his second-place finish at The Players Championship. He has lost strokes around the green in four out of his last five tournaments as well. If he bounces back this week it will be out of nowhere.
Max Homa $8,700 has struggled with his driver since the Masters. He has two straight top six finishes here and seems to like the new greens as he has gained over 10.5 strokes combined putting in his last two tournaments here. I’ll gamble on Homa figuring out his driver struggles and bouncing back from his missed cut at the Charles Schwab Challenge.
Jordan Spieth $8,600 has gained 1.9 or more strokes off the tee in four straight tournaments. He hasn’t had a top 10 since the Texas Open because he struggled with his iron game and putter. The wrist injury could be the reason he is struggling with both and it’s tough to back him even with his nice course history here.
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Byeong Hun An $8,400 loved to play at Muirfield Village early in his career as he had four straight top 25 finishes before he started to struggle in 2020. Once he regained his PGA Tour card he went right back to enjoying his golf at Muirfield Village as he gained over 7.3 strokes ball striking in 2023.
Sam Burns $8,300 See above.
Alex Noren $8,100 pops up in my model despite his missed cut last week. He has had an excellent season overall and has played well here before finishing T13 in 2021. I don’t love his price this week and that has me pausing before using him in some lineups.
Russell Henley $8,000 has gained over 11.5 strokes on approach combined over his last three tournaments. I think Henley may go overlooked in this price range. He has gained with his putter in seven of his last eight tournaments and has been excellent around the green as well.
Shane Lowry $7,900 bounced back from a bad first round at the RBC Canadian Open to make the cut and play well on the weekend. He was never going to gain over 9 strokes with his putter like he did at the PGA Championship, but he did gain slightly which was nice to see. He has gained more than 2.4 strokes on approach in five of his last six tournaments here.
Tony Finau $7,900 See above.
Tom Kim $7,800 finally gained strokes on approach at the Canadian Open. He gained over four strokes on the field on approach for the week. He gained more than five strokes combined around the green in his last two tournaments as well.
Keegan Bradley $7,700 has three straight top 21 finishes and has gained over 11 strokes combined off the tee in his last two tournaments. He has gained over three strokes on approach in four out of his last five tournaments. He really likes the new greens here as he has gained over 8.6 strokes putting the last two years.
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Si Woo Kim $7,700 has struggled with the putter lately losing over 12 strokes combined over his last three tournaments. He has four straight top 18 finishes here and he has gained with his putter in three out of his last four trips here.
Will Zalatoris $7,500 hasn’t been as good since the Masters. I like that he gained more than 3.5 strokes on approach at the PGA Championship, but he has lost over six strokes combined around the green in his last three tournaments. I’m not fading him with his upside, but I would be careful of rostering him too much.
Billy Horschel $7,400 comes into the week in good form as he has gained strokes around the green in six of his last measured events. He won in Puntacana and finished T8 at the PGA Championship. He won here in 2022 and has five other top-15 finishes.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout $7,300 missed the cut at the PGA Championship but has played well here with three straight top 40 finishes. His short game sets him apart in this price range.
Low-priced options
Taylor Pendrith $6,700
Austin Eckroat $6,700
Adam Svensson $6,600
Lee Hodges $6,500
One and Done
Each week, we will pick in reverse order of the standings, and we can’t duplicate picks in the same week. Referencethis spreadsheettracking who we have used.
Standings
- Hugh Kellenberger: $7,250,018.63
- Brody Miller: $6,862,921.16
- Dennis Esser: $2,534,966
Esser: The next three weeks are make or break for many one-and-done players as we have a major championship sandwiched between two signature events. Collin Morikawa comes into this week in the best form he has shown all year and he gets to tee it up at a place where he has played well over the years.
Miller: The hard part is it’s a signature event and I don’t have any great options left of the top stars. Collin is off the table. Hovland still cannot be trusted yet. Driving the ball is so crucial that it feels like the perfect Ludvig Aberg week, but he played poorly at Valhalla with the bad knee. Screw it. Life is too short. Give me Ludvig to get his first big boy when at Muirfield Village!
Kellenberger: I’ll go with Wyndham Clark, who performed very well at this tournament a year ago and has been lurking in the weeds for the last little while. Muirfield Village is a good place for him to pounce.
(Photo of Justin Thomas: Christian Petersen / Getty Images)
Dennis Esser is a contributor to The Athletic, covering golf through the lens of sports betting and fantasy sports. A resident of New Jersey, Dennis' writing has appeared in numerous fantasy and betting outlets.
